With just eight days to go before the election, both national poll and swing state surveys make it clear the race is tightening.
President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.
Biden’s average lead is only 3 percentage points or more in five of the swing states, but those include the crucial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Trump flipped in 2016. And while Trump grew his modest lead in Ohio and cut Biden’s leads in Arizona, Florida and Georgia further down to size, he also lost ground in Texas and Iowa.
The USA TODAY average of averages is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics (RCP) and FiveThirtyEight.
Last week:Trump roars back in Florida, Biden gains in Georgia
National average
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.4%, Trump 42.9% (Biden +8.6)
Last week: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
Net change: Trump +1.2
- RCP: Biden 50.8%, Trump 42.8%
- FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.0%, Trump 42.9%
At this point in 2016: Clinton +5.6
Swing state averages
Arizona: Biden +2.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.1%
Last week: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5% (Biden +3.8)
Net change: Trump +1.1
Florida: Biden +1.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.9%, Trump 47.0%
Last week: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.0% (Biden +2.7)
Net change: Trump +0.8
Georgia: Biden +0.5
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.6%, Trump 47.1%
Last week: Biden 47.9%, Trump 46.6% (Biden +1.3)
Net change: Trump +0.8
Iowa: Biden +1.1
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.4%, Trump 46.3%
Last week: Biden 47.8%, Trump 47.0%(Biden +0.8)
Net change: Biden +0.3
Michigan: Biden +7.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 42.7%
Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 42.9% (Biden +7.5)
Net change: Biden +0.3
Minnesota: Biden +7.1
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.4%, Trump 42.3%
Last week: Biden 49.0%, Trump 41.2% (Biden +7.8)
Net change: Trump +0.7
Nevada: Biden +5.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.6%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 49.3%, Trump 43.4% (Biden +5.9)
Net change: Trump +0.1
North Carolina: Biden +1.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 47.2%
Last week: Biden 48.8%, Trump 45.9% (Biden +2.9)
Net change: Trump +1.0
Ohio: Trump +1.0
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 47.4%, Biden 46.4%
Last week: Trump 46.7%, Biden 46.4% (Trump +0.3)
Net change: Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.4
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.6%
Last week: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.5% (Biden +5.5)
Net change: Trump +0.1
Texas: Trump +1.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.8%
Last week: Trump 48.9%, Biden 46.0% (Trump +2.9)
Net change: Biden +1.2
Wisconsin: Biden +5.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.1%, Trump 44.4%
Last week: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +6.7)
Net change: Trump +1.0
Senate races
Arizona: McSally closing the gap with Kelly
In most polls, for most of the race, Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords of Arizona, has held a lead – sometimes in the double digits – over GOP incumbent Sen. Martha McSally. But several polls this week indicate Kelly’s lead has slipped substantially, if not disappeared altogether.
In a poll released Oct. 5, Morning Consult found Kelly up 13 points over McSally, 51%-38%. But a Morning Consult poll released Thursday found Kelly up just 4 points , 48%-44%. And two polls released Friday found McSally with a slight lead: one, from Susquehanna Polling and Research found McSally up 50%-47% and one from Basswood Research found her up a little over 1 point.
Kentucky: McConnell poised to win again
Democrats have long dreamed of unseating Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but it appears they will have to wait another six years to try again. According to two polls this week, former Marine pilot Amy McGrath is poised to suffer the same fate as McConnell’s past challengers.
A survey from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released Wednesday found McConnell leading McGrath 51%-42% and one released Thursday by the polling firm Cygnal found him winning by an even larger margin, 50%-40%.
“McConnell should be feeling very confident,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s CEO and founder. “The Senate Leader has had a historic role in driving the effort to confirm Trump’s judicial appointees to the federal bench – including Amy Coney Barrett – and it’s clear voters in the Bluegrass State appreciate his work.”
Poll-pourri
Majorities don’t want Affordable Care Act or Roe v. Wade tossed
The majority (56%) of likely voters preferred that the Affordable Care Act, often referred to as Obamacare, be upheld in court, while 66% said they agreed with the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman’s right to an abortion, according to a poll from Quinnipiac University. Democrats fear for the future of the ACA with a Supreme Court that is soon to have a 6-3 conservative majority after Amy Coney Barrett’s expected confirmation on Monday.
Majority says Biden won the final debate
Most registered voters said Biden performed better than Trump during the second presidential debate, according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll released Friday.
Fifty-four percent of voters who watched the Thursday debate said Biden performed the best, while 39% said Trump did. Eight percent of voters who watched weren’t sure or had no opinion on who did best.
