Brace yourselves for a shock at the gas station as fuel prices are poised for a hefty surge next week, with analysts predicting an increase of over P2 per liter for diesel.
Based on four days of trading on the Means of Platts Singapore (MOPS), along with movements in the international oil market, gasoline is forecasted to increase by P1.35 to P1.60 per liter, diesel by P2.30 to P2.60 per liter, and kerosene by P2.30 to P2.50 per liter.
Analysts from the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) and Jetti Petroleum cited the effects of sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the United Kingdom.
“This will result in a reduction of Russian exports, which could push global crude prices higher in the near term as the market adjusts to the loss of supply from one of the world’s largest oil producers. Likewise, there could be potential increases in shipping costs,” explained Rodela Romero, OIMB director.
Additionally, Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum, added that the sanctions on Russia could affect Russia’s top buyers, China and India.
A previous report by Capital Economics estimated that the restrictions would affect nearly 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, at least 20 percent of Russia’s seaborne crude output.
Given that Russia accounts for about 20 and 40 percent of Chinese and Indian crude imports respectively, strict adherence to these sanctions will boost demand for unsanctioned oil and support prices as trade flows adjust,” the report elaborated.
Despite this, OPEC+ could potentially allow voluntary production cuts, which they previously held off on until April.
As of last week, a liter of gasoline in Metro Manila cost around P58 to P68.33, diesel P56.85 to P69.39, and kerosene P71.95.
