A farmer is seen working with carabaos in a barren rice field. (Courtesy: Department of Agriculture)
A potentially severe El Niño could cut palay production by about 700,000 metric tons in the second half of 2026, prompting the government to expand food buffers and prepare assistance for farmers, fisherfolk and other workers whose livelihoods could be disrupted by drought and extreme heat.
Department of Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said over the weekend the government is applying lessons from the previous El Niño and implementing measures to mitigate the impact of the expected dry spell.
“We are now more prepared,” Tiu Laurel said, citing advance purchases of rice, fertilizer and other farm inputs, expanded storage capacity and targeted interventions in areas expected to be hardest hit.
“At the end of the day, we are looking at the worst-case scenario, so we expect that overall production will still be lower,” he said.
The DA projects that El Niño and other weather-related shocks could reduce palay output by about 700,000 metric tons during the main harvest, while also affecting fisheries and livestock.
The Philippines’ palay output for the second half of 2025, specifically the October to December harvest season, was 6.85 million metric tons, reflecting a 5.2% decline from the previous year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
Last year’s fourth-quarter volume of production of palay was the lowest recorded for the same quarter since 2012, the PSA added. The Ilocos Region was the top producer, accounting for 18.4% of the total output, followed by Central Luzon and Cagayan Valley.
P6.2 billion for farmers’ fuel subsidies
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has provided the DA an additional P6.2 billion for fuel subsidies and other assistance to farmers, fisherfolk and agricultural truckers affected by higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict and the early effects of El Niño.
The DA is tailoring assistance to local conditions, including increased use of foliar and soil ameliorants, particularly bio-based, non-urea products. Tiu Laurel said fertilizer application and seed intensity would also be increased where warranted.
The department earlier said it was adopting a scientific approach to mitigate the impact of the expected El Niño, with nearly P10 billion allocated for fuel and fertilizer subsidies and solar-powered irrigation projects.
The National Food Authority has expanded its storage network to 365 active warehouses from about 300 after leasing additional facilities. The government is also opening new cold storage facilities to extend the shelf life of meat, vegetables and other perishables.
Cloud-seeding operations have begun in drought-hit areas, including Isabela and Negros. Tiu Laurel said the DA would deploy the measure when cloud formations contain enough moisture to produce rain.
The DA is also coordinating with the Office of the President on irrigation. Tiu Laurel said recent heavy monsoon rains had replenished major dams and could provide enough water for the next planting season.
Dams below high-water levels
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, however, reported that most major dams remained below their normal high-water levels.
As of Oct. 4, Angat Dam in Bulacan stood at 208.49 meters against its normal high-water level of 210 meters, while Ipo Dam was at 100.18 meters against 101.10 meters.
La Mesa Dam in Quezon City was at 79.13 meters against 80.15 meters. Ambuklao Dam in Benguet stood at 750.95 meters against 752 meters, while Binga Dam was at 574.34 meters against 575 meters.
Pantabangan Dam in Nueva Ecija was at 208.26 meters against 218 meters, while Magat Dam in Isabela stood at 190.38 meters against 193 meters.
San Roque Dam in Pangasinan was above its normal high-water level at 284.22 meters against 280 meters, while Caliraya Dam in Laguna also remained high at 286.48 meters.
PAGASA expects water levels in the dams to decline as a very strong El Niño develops, with the dry spell forecast to persist into the first half of 2027.
Expanded labor assistance
The Department of Labor and Employment is also preparing to expand its Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers (TUPAD) program to provide temporary jobs and income support to vulnerable workers affected by the expected severe heat and drought.
DOLE is also considering additional emergency employment and livelihood assistance for workers whose jobs could be disrupted by the dry spell and is coordinating with other government agencies on possible interventions.
Construction workers, street vendors, delivery riders, drivers, security guards and other outdoor workers could be particularly vulnerable to extreme heat because many depend on daily employment and income.
DOLE has partnered with the DA to assist farmers in areas affected by El Niño through emergency jobs and livelihood activities.
It is also considering TUPAD assistance for fisherfolk whose livelihoods could be affected by changing fishing conditions and higher operating costs.
The department has yet to announce a comprehensive nationwide assistance package specifically for all workers affected by the expected severe El Niño.
Tulfo seeks funds, concrete plan
Senator Erwin Tulfo called for a concrete government plan and sufficient funding to prepare for the expected extreme El Niño, warning that drought could raise the prices of basic goods and disrupt livelihoods.
Tulfo, chairman of the Senate Committee on Social Justice, Welfare and Rural Development, said DA data showed P6.87 billion in agricultural losses as of Sept. 26, affecting 223,214 farmers.
“Let us not wait for our farms to turn to ash, our faucets to run dry, and our fellow Filipinos to collapse from the heat before we act to find solutions,” Tulfo said.
“The science is there. The warnings are there. It is time to stop acting on disasters after they happen and start implementing a swift, proactive, and concrete plan for our safety,” he said.
Tulfo said the administration’s El Niño Task Force should go beyond protecting farmers and ensuring irrigation for agricultural areas.
“A task force should be more than just a coordinating body. It should have a clear plan, clear responsibilities, and above all, sufficient funding to act before the crisis cripples our communities,” he said.
Tulfo’s concerns have also been referred to the Reinvigorate Investment and Sustainable Economic Growth (RISE) Ad Hoc Committee, which was created to address slowing economic growth, the rising cost of living and declining purchasing power.
“We cannot allow our fellow Filipinos to fend for themselves when the crisis strikes. They deserve a government they can rely on, especially since they pay taxes for the services they are entitled to receive,” he said. —With Vito Barcelo and Ram Superable