Commuters wade through a flooded street triggered by heavy monsoon rains in Manila on August 17, 2026. AFP / Ted Aljibe
MANILA, Philippines — The government’s P1-billion investment in flood forecasting could help screen proposed flood-control projects before billions of pesos are spent on infrastructure that may not work, Project NOAH Executive Director Mahar Lagmay said.
With the fund infusion, Project NOAH can simulate flooding using the actual terrain of an area and test proposed infrastructure designs to determine whether they would effectively reduce flooding, Lagmay said Tuesday, August 25. NOAH stands for “Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards.”
“Before we spend billions of pesos on infrastructure, we can already see whether that intervention against flooding is appropriate, so we do not have to spend huge amounts of money on something that may ultimately go nowhere,” Lagmay said in Filipino in an interview on Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon.
Simulations could allow agencies such as the Department of Public Works and Highways to run proposed designs against detailed terrain models before construction begins, he said.
“It is important to have science that can be used,” Lagmay said. “Our flood management interventions will not simply go to waste because, even before we spend, we will already know whether they will be effective.”
The P1-billion allocation will support AI-assisted flood forecasting, higher-resolution hazard mapping, real-time monitoring and other technologies under Project NOAH.
Lagmay said more than half of the budget would go to instruments, including drones equipped with LiDAR that will be distributed to state universities and colleges around the country. LiDAR, or Light Detection and Ranging, uses lasers to produce detailed measurements of terrain.
Project NOAH previously produced hazard maps at a resolution of 10 by 10 meters. Lagmay said the project is now working toward one-by-one-meter maps. The finer detail would help scientists better understand how water moves through particular communities and watersheds and improve simulations of proposed flood interventions.
Flood planning should also look beyond administrative boundaries and examine entire watersheds, Lagmay said.
Lagmay: AI a tool, but data still matters
Part of the investment into NOAH was notably for the use of AI. The scientist, however, cautioned against treating artificial intelligence as the centerpiece of the government’s flood forecasting program. The quality of the underlying data, after all, remains most valuable.
“Ang AI is just a tool… Garbage in, garbage out,” Lagmay said, stressing the role of scientists, researchers and community-level information.
The technology can speed up assessments and analysis, but AI output still depends on accurate historical, technical and high-resolution local data, he added.
“AI may sound sexy, but what really matters is the content,” Lagmay said.
The P1-billion program will also expand impact-based forecasting, which Project NOAH has been developing using about 14 years of historical information, satellite images, rainfall data and other datasets.
Lagmay said the system could eventually forecast a day in advance not only where flooding may occur but also its possible effects on homes, buildings, roads and traffic.
Such information could guide decisions on evacuations, class suspensions and other anticipatory measures.
About 59.7% of local governments currently use Project NOAH products, Lagmay said, citing data from the United Nations Development Programme.
The additional funding could help expand that coverage and provide local governments with more detailed information not only on where flooding may occur, but also on what actions they can take.